College football’s inherent unpredictability, where one program’s definition of success vastly differs from another’s, makes evaluating team prospects a complex endeavor, especially with the dynamism introduced by the transfer portal. This season, several teams are poised to deviate significantly from their perceived trajectories, not necessarily due to collapse, but rather a failure to meet elevated expectations or sustain previous good fortunes.
One such program facing a precarious season is Syracuse, whose 2025 campaign hinges significantly on offensive rebalancing. With former Notre Dame backup Steve Angeli and ex-LSU backup Rickie Collins vying for the starting quarterback role, the challenge lies in effectively utilizing talent like former five-star wideout Johntay Cook II, who transferred from Texas seeking more opportunities. The Orange’s inability to establish a consistent run game, evidenced by their 3.16 yards per carry last season, combined with a defense that ranked 96th nationally in points allowed, suggests that replicating their previous success in one-score games will be difficult against a tougher schedule.
Illinois, often hailed as a Big Ten dark horse, illustrates a different path to disappointment; even a respectable season might fall short of current expectations. Replicating last year’s nine-win season will be tough with a schedule featuring early road tests against Duke and Indiana, followed by Ohio State and a challenging Big Ten slate. While the team boasts talent like EDGE Gabe Jacas and quarterback Luke Altmyer, who excelled in “Big Time Throws,” the loss of top receivers like Pat Bryant necessitates immediate impact from transfers Hudson Clement and Justin Bowick. Despite high returning production rankings, sustaining the good fortune that marked their 2024 campaign, including multiple overtime wins and last-play victories, remains uncertain, making nine wins feel like a ceiling rather than a floor.
Tennessee enters the season under the shadow of what could have been with Nico Iamaleava, whose unexpected transfer created a significant void. New Volunteers quarterback Joey Aguilar, arriving from UCLA after a stint at Appalachian State, faces the daunting task of mastering his third offense in less than a year while operating in the immense shadow of his predecessor’s unfulfilled potential. Aguilar’s impressive passing yardage and touchdown numbers are unfortunately offset by a concerning interception rate (24 over two seasons), raising questions about his ability to lead Tennessee to its first-ever College Football Playoff without repeating past turnover issues.
USC, despite an ambitious recruitment strategy aiming for a national championship push in future cycles, is likely a year away from true contention, meaning this season could disappoint eager fans. Coach Lincoln Riley’s tenure has seen a year-over-year decline in wins, and while the Trojans are on pace for a top 2026 recruiting class and have brought in numerous impactful transfers, many are underclassmen. Quarterback Jayden Maiava, though competent after taking over last season, demonstrated vulnerability against stronger defenses with multiple interceptions, highlighting the developmental curve still ahead for the Trojans to consistently compete at the highest level.
Iowa State faces significant challenges after losing key offensive weapons and defensive linchpins. Quarterback Rocco Becht will miss the production of NFL Draft picks Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, leaving a major void in the receiving corps, with only 11-catch Carson Brown as the top returning wideout. While transfers like Chase Sowell and a solid running back duo of Carson Hansen and Abu Sama III offer some hope, the defense’s ability to compensate is questionable. Losing their top three linemen and several crucial defensive backs, especially after ranking 110th nationally against the run last year, suggests the Cyclones could struggle to maintain defensive integrity, potentially leading to a regression from recent successes.
Colorado, under the charismatic leadership of Coach Prime, defied doubters last season with a significant turnaround, but the loss of two-way star Travis Hunter and starting quarterback Shedeur Sanders to the NFL presents an enormous challenge. These departures remove the primary constants from the Buffaloes’ recent successes. While Deion Sanders has again utilized the transfer portal extensively, bringing in over 30 new players, the sheer volume of turnover means the team will not only look different on paper but also require significant time to establish new schematic cohesion and rebuild the on-field chemistry that was so crucial to their previous achievements.
UNLV, coming off a program-record-tying 11-win season, now faces a complete reset following head coach Barry Odom’s departure and the arrival of Dan Mullen. Mullen inherits a roster heavily shaped by the transfer portal, a diverse mix of former power-conference players. The quarterback situation, with Michigan transfer Alex Orji and Virginia transfer Anthony Colandrea competing, presents uncertainty; Orji relies more on his legs than arm, while Colandrea has shown an interception problem. Integrating these new pieces, particularly on a front seven that includes former Florida and LSU defensive lineman Jalen Lee, will be a significant task for Mullen, who must quickly adapt to a dramatically changed landscape since his last head coaching stint.
Marshall’s Sun Belt-winning 2024 season is unfortunately followed by a near-complete rebuild, as head coach Charles Huff unexpectedly left for Southern Miss, taking several key players, including quarterback Braylon Braxton, with him. New head coach Tony Gibson now leads a Thundering Herd team that returns no players who passed or rushed for a single yard last season, and has undergone major turnover in the trenches. This unprecedented level of personnel change, coupled with the abrupt departure of their successful coach, suggests a steep climb back to contention for Marshall, making a significant step back in performance almost inevitable this season.
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