A critical labor dispute is poised to significantly impact Boeing’s defense manufacturing operations, as a pivotal union vote approaches that could trigger a major strike.

The International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers Local 837, representing 3,200 Boeing defense workers across Missouri and Illinois, is set to vote Sunday morning on a revised labor contract. This crucial decision follows intense negotiations and a prior rejection of an earlier offer, intensifying the stakes for both parties.

Currently, both Boeing and the union remain within a federally mandated “cooling-off” period, designed to avert immediate industrial action. However, if the union members reject the new offer, a strike could commence as early as Monday, threatening immediate disruptions to the production of vital military aircraft.

The revised 4-year contract, presented to the 3,200 St. Louis-area factory workers, includes a 20% wage increase, identical to the previously rejected offer, which would elevate average pay from $75,000 to $102,600. Additionally, a $5,000 ratification bonus is on the table, contingent on the deal’s approval by a tight deadline of 11:59 p.m. on August 3rd.

Significant modifications in the new proposal also address previous union concerns, notably dropping controversial schedule changes like the 3×12 shifts that would have reduced overtime potential. The company has also committed to improving 401(k) benefits, with full company match increases now paid upfront rather than phased in over three years.

Following the initial contract rejection by IAM 837 members, Boeing expressed considerable disappointment. The company released a statement indicating their belief that the union had voted down “the richest contract offer we’ve ever presented,” asserting that it addressed all stated union priorities.

The potential rejection of this labor agreement on Sunday carries profound implications for national defense. Such a strike could severely disrupt the manufacturing of critical military aircraft and drones, including key models like the F-15, F/A-18, T-7A, and MQ-25, directly impacting defense capabilities and supply chains.

Historically, St. Louis Boeing workers have not engaged in prolonged labor activism, with their last strike occurring in 1996, a contrast to the more frequent labor actions seen with Boeing unions in the Pacific Northwest. Melius Research analyst Scott Mikus has highlighted this historical context, suggesting a unique dynamic in the current standoff.