China’s refined copper output is set to achieve unprecedented levels by 2025, a remarkable surge driven by its advanced smelting industry, even as the global copper market grapples with a significant ore deficit. This pivotal development underscores China’s escalating dominance in the global commodities landscape and its strategic response to evolving market dynamics.

This impressive expansion is particularly notable given the backdrop of a worldwide copper ore scarcity, which has compelled several international competitors to curtail or cease operations. China, already accounting for more philanthropic half of the world’s refined copper production, is projected to increase its output by a substantial 7.5% to 12% this year, surpassing last year’s record of 13.64 million metric tons, according to expert forecasts.

China’s accelerating copper market production is consolidating its industrial leadership by absorbing a significant portion of the scarce copper concentrate, a vital raw material for smelters. The global supply of concentrate began to tighten in late 2023, primarily due to sluggish growth in mine output, closures of key mining operations, and a rapid expansion of smelting capacity, particularly within China.

This acute scarcity severely impacted processing fees—the revenue smelters earn for converting concentrate into finished metal—driving them to historic lows. Such reduced profitability severely affected smelters outside of China, leading many to halt or reduce their production, thereby highlighting the competitive advantage held by Chinese operations.

According to commodities strategists, Chinese smelters have managed to increase their output at a faster pace than their concentrate imports. This robust growth is largely attributable to investments in state-of-the-art smelting plants, which have innovatively offset some financial pressures by boosting revenue from lucrative byproducts such as sulphuric acid and rare elements. This strategic diversification solidifies China’s position in the smelting industry.

Meanwhile, China’s copper concentrate imports recorded a significant 6.4% rise in the first half of the year, considerably outstripping the modest 0.3% to 0.87% increase in global ore supply anticipated for 2025. Projections suggest that China’s refined copper production is poised to outpace this import growth, potentially elevating its global market share to an impressive 57%, as reported by leading intelligence firms, further cementing its China Economy influence.

This substantial increase in domestic output is also expected to significantly reduce China’s reliance on refined copper imports. In 2024, these imports constituted approximately 20% of the national demand, totaling 3.74 million tons. Refined copper imports saw an 8.6% decline in the first half of the year, partly due to traders redirecting shipments to the United States to preempt potential copper tariffs.

Despite the increased supply from China, the market found support from this surge in shipments to the US, with benchmark copper prices still registering an 8.8% year-to-date gain. The recent announcement by Donald Trump of 50% tariffs on copper pipes and wiring, while significant, was less severe than market speculation, notably excluding critical mineral resources like copper ores, concentrates, and cathodes, a nuanced development in trade policy.