While many fiscally conscious Americans cite the national debt at roughly $37 trillion, the unsettling truth of Uncle Sam’s financial obligations extends far beyond that official figure. According to a barely-publicized Treasury report, the United States faces a staggering grand total of over $151 trillion in commitments, revealing a fiscal crisis far more severe than commonly understood.
This significant discrepancy largely stems from the federal government’s self-serving accounting practices. Unlike businesses mandated to use accrual accounting, which recognizes expenses when incurred, Washington operates on simple cash accounting, only acknowledging expenses when paid. This fundamental difference intentionally narrows public discourse on federal obligations, focusing primarily on the national debt comprising Treasury bills, notes, and bonds.
However, an obscure annual Treasury report to Congress, compelled by a 1994 law, mandates the inclusion of “unfunded liabilities.” These are commitments made without dedicated assets or income streams to ensure their fulfillment. Major categories of these unfunded liabilities include future federal employee and veterans benefits, but by far the largest components are America’s social insurance obligations, primarily Social Security and Medicare, which alone total a towering $105.8 trillion.
When stacking these massive unfunded liabilities atop the publicly held national debt and other obligations, the grim reality of a $151.3 trillion total emerges as of the end of the 2024 fiscal year. After offsetting this with an estimated $7.9 trillion in government commercial assets, analyses place the net-negative position at an overwhelming $143 trillion. To put this into stark perspective for the US economy, this amounts to 85% of the total net wealth Americans have accumulated since the nation’s founding, and the figure continues to deteriorate rapidly, increasing at approximately $156 million per hour.
Attempts to wrangle the budget through congressional debates often prove futile, as they tend to center on discretionary spending—outlays requiring annual votes. Yet, America’s steady march to insolvency is predominantly driven by mandatory spending, which is hardwired by previously enacted laws. In a deeply ominous trend, mandatory spending has more than doubled its proportion of total federal outlays since 1965, reaching 73% in 2024, indicating a government on an autopilot course toward catastrophe.
The two largest examples of mandatory spending are Social Security and Medicare. These critical old-age programs are now well within sight of a crisis long warned about; their trust funds are projected to run out in just seven years, by 2033. If program incomes alone must cover payouts at that point, it will translate to a sudden 23% cut in benefits, a political time bomb that elected officials appear reluctant to defuse, often opting to borrow money to prop up payouts rather than address the underlying fiscal crisis.
Another escalating component of mandatory spending not typically counted in the national debt is interest payments on debt. These payments are projected to reach almost $1 trillion this year and could hit $2 trillion within a decade, roughly equaling the entire 2025 deficit. This represents a vicious cycle in which mounting US national debt forces buyers to demand higher interest rates due to growing risk, subsequently creating larger interest payouts and even more debt, exacerbating the overall economic collapse risk.
Beyond the funded-vs-unfunded and mandatory-vs-discretionary classifications, a more fundamental issue lies in constitutional versus unconstitutional spending. Today’s sprawling federal government engages in a vast array of unauthorized undertakings, from federal drug prohibitions to numerous departments and programs for which there is zero constitutional authority. This unbridled expansion of government spending from 3% of GDP in 1930 to 23% in 2024 has paved the way for the current $143 trillion hole, a burden of over $1 million per US household, and suggests an end through rampant price inflation as the Treasury and Federal Reserve potentially resort to creating new money to make payments.
The alarming trajectory of federal debt and spending points to a future of money-printing on a scale that could trigger hyperinflation and economic collapse. At such a crossroads, Americans will face a critical choice: succumbing to further authoritarianism and centralized control that caused the problem, or embracing greater liberty and adherence to constitutional principles as the only viable path to avert an unprecedented financial disaster.
