Every year, the highly anticipated fantasy football season brings both triumphs and disappointments, particularly when high-cost players fail to deliver. Identifying potential fantasy busts before your draft is a crucial element of a winning fantasy football strategy, especially at the tight end position where reliable production can be scarce.
Travis Kelce, a long-time fantasy football stalwart, presents a significant concern for 2025. His performance has shown a noticeable decline over the past two seasons, a trend that is likely to continue as he approaches his 36th birthday. This diminished output was particularly evident when Rashee Rice was a healthy and dominant factor in the Kansas City Chiefs’ offense, affecting Kelce’s target share and overall fantasy output.
Further complicating Kelce’s outlook is the emerging role of Noah Gray. Gray’s increased involvement in the Chiefs’ passing game, particularly as a red zone threat, saw him surpass Kelce in touchdown receptions last season. As the team integrates more young talent like Xavier Worthy, Kelce’s opportunities could further dwindle, making his current average draft position as a top-tier tight end a potential trap for fantasy football managers seeking consistent player projections.
Another tight end generating unwarranted buzz in fantasy drafts is Dalton Kincaid. Despite playing in a high-octane offense led by Josh Allen, Kincaid has yet to demonstrate the consistent production expected of a TE1. His floor remains low, and his ceiling appears capped by his limited role within the Buffalo Bills’ aerial attack, particularly in crucial red zone situations.
Kincaid’s statistical output over two seasons – 166 targets leading to a mere two touchdowns in a single season – underscores his struggles. With Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman developing into prominent receiving options, and the addition of Joshua Palmer, Kincaid’s involvement is projected to decrease rather than increase, making him a risky investment for those prioritizing reliable tight end analysis.
Rookie tight ends often carry significant risk, and any pass-catcher linked to an unproven quarterback like Anthony Richardson demands caution. History shows that even established fantasy assets like Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs have struggled for consistent fantasy value when paired with Richardson. Drafting a rookie tight end with a high ADP, such as Tyler Warren, in such a situation is a prime example of a potential fantasy bust to avoid, as it directly contradicts sound draft strategy.
Colston Loveland, another rookie tight end making this list, is currently being drafted surprisingly high as a TE1. The combination of an unproven quarterback and an offense with numerous established receiving options creates an unfavorable environment for immediate fantasy success. While recent seasons have seen a few breakout rookie tight ends, it’s not a reliable trend to bank on for your core roster in dynasty leagues or redraft formats.
The challenge for Loveland isn’t his talent, but the crowded target tree in his offense, which includes established playmakers like DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, D’Andre Swift, and Cole Kmet, all vying for targets from Caleb Williams. Drafting Loveland as a starting tight end is an oversight; he is best viewed as a backup, a potential waiver wire pickup who can be stashed on your bench to see if his opportunity increases later in the season.
Understanding these critical player analyses and applying a disciplined draft strategy are paramount to avoiding high-cost fantasy busts at the tight end position. Prioritizing consistent production and mitigating risk will significantly enhance your chances of success in the competitive 2025 fantasy football landscape.
