The intensifying impacts of climate change are now manifesting in the very skies above us, with new research indicating a concerning rise in the frequency and destructive power of hailstorms. As global temperatures continue to warm, scientists warn that larger, more damaging hailstones are becoming an increasingly common weather phenomenon, posing significant threats to property and infrastructure across the globe.
Hail forms within severe thunderstorms where powerful updrafts propel icy pellets high into the frigid upper atmosphere. Here, supercooled water droplets collide with and freeze onto these particles, incrementally increasing their size until they become too heavy for the storm’s updraft to support, at which point they plummet to Earth, sometimes reaching astonishing dimensions.
A recent study published in the scientific journal npj Climate and Atmospheric Science highlights a critical link: warmer average global temperatures, driven by climate change, are creating conditions conducive to the formation of substantially larger hailstones. This escalation in extreme weather events is projected to exacerbate the already billions of dollars in annual property damage caused by hail across various regions.
The financial ramifications of this atmospheric shift are already evident. Insurance companies have reported a significant surge in hail damage claims from homeowners. For instance, in 2024 alone, roof repair and replacement costs nationwide reached nearly $31 billion, a nearly 30% increase from 2022 figures, with hail and wind accounting for more than half of all residential claims.
To better understand and predict these escalating threats, researchers are embarking on unprecedented scientific endeavors. The world’s largest-ever coordinated effort to study hail is currently underway, supported by substantial funding from the National Science Foundation. This extensive research aims to refine forecasts of severe, damaging hail through advanced technologies like drones, weather balloons, and specialized meteorological instruments.
Historical data and recent events underscore the growing problem. While the Chicago area has historically averaged about 11 days of any size hail annually, with two days seeing stones 2 inches or larger, recent years have witnessed more formidable events. This includes instances of 3-inch hail in Livingston County and tennis-ball sized stones pelting Batavia, illustrating the trend of larger hail impacting communities.
Sophisticated high-resolution modeling used in the study predicts a significant increase in severe hailstorms, particularly with larger stones, for regions like the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. These areas could experience at least five additional days of such storms from mid- to late-century. Researchers emphasize that the extent of this increase is directly tied to human emissions of CO2, acting as a “gas pedal” for atmospheric changes.
Further insights from the models suggest that a warmer climate concentrates more water vapor in the atmosphere, fueling more robust thunderstorms with stronger updrafts capable of suspending larger hailstones for longer periods. Conversely, these warmer lower atmospheric layers would melt smaller, slower-falling hailstones, meaning that the proportion of truly gigantic stones reaching the ground will likely increase, even as overall small hail decreases.
Despite tornadoes often capturing headlines for their dramatic and immediate danger to life, hail’s more frequent occurrence and widespread impact on assets and structures lead to far greater cumulative insured losses annually. As urbanization expands, an increasing number of people and their properties become vulnerable to these pelting stones, making enhanced weather forecasting and preparation more critical than ever.
