A recent political survey has unveiled a significant shift in voter sentiment within the Garden State, indicating a notable decline in former President Donald Trump’s popularity among New Jersey voters six months into his second term, despite his narrow margin in the last presidential race.
The poll’s findings highlight a stark partisan divide, with only a mere 5% of likely Democratic voters in New Jersey expressing approval of Trump’s performance. Conversely, a strong majority of surveyed Republicans, 88%, continue to endorse his administration, underscoring deeply entrenched loyalties.
Independent voters, a crucial demographic, also show a downturn in their approval for the former President. A July Gallup poll revealed that only 29% of independents approve of Trump, a noticeable dip from his median approval rating of approximately 36% observed between February and June. This decline suggests a struggle to maintain cross-party appeal.
Political analysts like Cassino observe that while the previous presidential election in New Jersey was unexpectedly close, any momentum Trump might have gained to solidify lasting support in the state appears to have dissipated. This analysis points to a missed opportunity for the former President to convert a near-win into sustained electoral strength.
A significant concern impacting voter perception revolves around immigration policies. Over a quarter of likely voters surveyed, 28%, expressed fears that deportations could directly affect themselves or their families. This apprehension was particularly pronounced among Hispanic and Latino voters in New Jersey, where the figure soared to 50%.
Furthermore, public opinion strongly leans against the administration’s current approach to immigration enforcement. A substantial 55% of polled voters believe Trump’s administration is engaging in “too much” deportation of unauthorized immigrants, with only 10% suggesting the administration is not doing enough. This widespread disapproval of deportation policies emerges as a critical factor in voter sentiment.
The former President’s declining popularity in New Jersey casts a shadow over the upcoming governor’s race, potentially hindering the prospects of Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli, who has received Trump’s endorsement. This dynamic creates an opening for his Democratic opponent.
Democratic U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill, D-N.J. 4th District, stands to benefit significantly from this shift. Her campaign has ample opportunity to press Ciattarelli on immigration and other pertinent issues, leveraging Trump’s faltering support in the state to her advantage. Sherrill currently holds a single-digit lead, with 45% compared to Ciattarelli’s 37% among polled voters, and a significant 16% remain undecided with approximately 13 weeks until the election.
While Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris secured New Jersey’s 14 Electoral College votes in the last election, her performance against Republican former President Donald Trump trailed behind President Biden’s stronger victory in 2020. This context underscores the evolving political landscape and voter preferences in the state.
