The ongoing discourse within the Scottish National Party regarding the strategy for achieving Scottish independence appears to be overlooking several fundamental constitutional realities. While internal debates captivate headlines, the broader, more complex question of how Scotland might actually become an independent state remains central to the national conversation.
Ultimately, the path to Scottish independence is predicated on two critical factors: the expressed will of the Scottish people, clearly demonstrated through a vote, and the indispensable consent of the United Kingdom government. Successive Prime Ministers have acknowledged that Scotland cannot be held within the Union against its declared will, establishing a precedent for a consensual separation.
However, the process is far from straightforward. The Supreme Court has unequivocally stated that the power to legislate for a Scottish independence referendum lies with Westminster, not Holyrood. This conclusion is rooted in the Scotland Act 1998, which specifically reserves matters concerning the Crown and the Union of the Kingdoms of Scotland and England to the UK Parliament, underscoring the complexities of constitutional law.
First Minister John Swinney advocates for a meticulous approach, emphasizing the necessity for the SNP to rebuild public trust before pressing for constitutional change. His perspective suggests that the Scottish people, currently facing various socio-economic challenges, seek reassurance rather than immediate constitutional lectures, thus demanding a specific, formal referendum mutually agreed upon by both sides.
Conversely, Swinney’s internal critics argue that independence support should be gauged more broadly, encompassing votes for other pro-independence parties like the Greens or Alba. They contend that focusing solely on SNP votes for a “compound verdict” might be a tactical misstep and accuse the First Minister of raising the independence issue primarily to appease dissidents within his own ranks.
The core of the dispute highlights a crucial misunderstanding: there is no simple constitutional button or fixed trigger that unilaterally engenders independence or a referendum. The future of the Union, under current constitutional law, firmly resides with Westminster, a point clearly delineated by the devolution settlement established in 1998.
Despite the internal party struggles, John Swinney remains a passionate advocate for Scottish independence, acknowledging that opinion polls often show support for independence in the low to mid-50s, sometimes exceeding the SNP’s current popular standing. His strategic aim is to present independence as the solution to voters’ primary concerns, positioning the SNP as the exclusive conduit for achieving this outcome.
Swinney’s immediate objective extends beyond constitutional theory; he also aims to secure victory in the upcoming elections. By strategically framing the independence debate and consolidating the pro-independence vote under the SNP banner, he seeks to enhance his party’s popular standing and political influence, distinct from the contributions of other pro-independence parties.
