Dr. Luke Kemp, a leading expert at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at the University of Cambridge, presents a stark warning drawn from 5,000 years of human history: societal collapse, driven primarily by rampant inequality, is not merely a historical phenomenon but a looming global threat. His extensive research, detailed in a new book, scrutinizes the rise and fall of over 400 societies, concluding that our current trajectory points towards an unprecedented worldwide self-termination. This alarming analysis urges a fundamental reassessment of modern civilization’s inherent vulnerabilities.

Challenging conventional historical narratives, Kemp introduces the term “Goliaths” to describe societies built on domination – states exerting control over citizens, the wealthy over the poor, and men over women – rather than using the often propagandistic term “civilization.” He argues that these Goliaths, akin to the biblical figure, are inherently fragile despite their outward displays of power. This paradigm shift in understanding human progress highlights a historical “evolutionary backsliding” from egalitarian hunter-gatherer communities to hierarchical structures steeped in violence and control.

Kemp identifies three primary catalysts for the formation and expansion of these oppressive Goliaths throughout human history. The first is a monopoly on resources, often achieved through violence and exemplified by the early kingdoms and empires. Second, the development and exclusive control of superior weaponry, such as bronze swords, provided a decisive advantage to emerging elites. The final crucial factor is “caged land” – geographical constraints like oceans or mountains that prevent populations from migrating away from burgeoning tyrannies, thus making them susceptible to pharaohs or similar despotic rule.

A recurring theme in Kemp’s work is that all Goliaths, from the Roman Empire to the Han Dynasty, contain the very seeds of their destruction: inequality. This destructive force does not stem from inherent human greed, but rather from a small fraction of individuals high in “dark triad” traits – narcissism, psychopathy, and Machiavellianism – who relentlessly pursue profit and power. As these elites extract immense wealth, societies become hollowed out and brittle, susceptible to infighting, corruption, environmental degradation, and ultimately, poor governance by a narrow oligarchy, making them vulnerable to external shocks like disease or conflict.

Historically, societal collapses were typically regional events, and strikingly, often led to improved lives for ordinary citizens who were freed from taxation and domination, frequently returning to more agrarian lifestyles. However, Kemp gravely warns that today’s “global Goliath” – our interconnected, capitalist economic system – means a contemporary collapse would be catastrophic for everyone. Unlike previous eras, there are no uncolonized lands to retreat to, and the scale of potential destruction is exponentially greater.

The threats facing our global society are fundamentally more severe than those that precipitated past collapses. Where historical climate changes involved regional temperature shifts of around 1°C, we now face a global warming of 3°C. Furthermore, the advent of nuclear weapons, advanced artificial intelligence, and engineered pandemics introduce catastrophic global risks unseen in any prior historical period. These perils, according to Kemp, are not products of universal human nature but are generated by a select few powerful groups, such as the military-industrial complex and big tech.

Kemp asserts that modern world leaders embodying “dark triad” traits – specifically citing figures like Trump and Putin, and Machiavellian manipulation in others – serve as contemporary “agents of doom,” steering humanity towards this perilous trajectory. These figures, alongside powerful corporations, perpetuate the very systems that exacerbate global catastrophic risks. He underscores that these threats are not inherent to all humanity but are orchestrated by a small, secretive elite driven by profit and power, often concealing the true extent of the dangers they create.

Despite the grim prognosis, Kemp outlines a pathway to avert this global collapse, though he remains personally pessimistic about its likelihood. His primary solution involves cultivating genuinely democratic societies, achieved through mechanisms like citizen assemblies and juries empowered by digital technologies for large-scale direct democracy. History, he notes, demonstrates that more democratic societies are inherently more resilient. Additionally, he advocates for capping extreme wealth, arguing that vast concentrations of riches inevitably corrupt democratic systems and jeopardize planetary survival.

Kemp acknowledges that imagining widespread citizen juries or wealth caps might seem wildly optimistic, but he attributes this perceived impossibility to centuries of ingrained narratives justifying elite dominance. He challenges the notion that constructing artificial intelligence is more feasible than scaling democracy or ending arms races, emphasizing that humans are fundamentally social, altruistic, and democratic by nature, possessing an inherent “anti-dominance intuition.” Ultimately, even if success seems distant, Kemp urges a stance of defiance: fighting for democracy and against exploitation remains the only honorable path, ensuring at the very least, that one did not contribute to the problem.