Six months into his comeback term, former President Donald Trump has unequivocally taken full ownership of the United States economy, a move that now places the onus on his political party to successfully advocate for its performance to a discerning electorate. This critical juncture arrives as his economic policies, particularly the “One Big Beautiful Bill” tax-and-spending law and an expanding global tariff rollout, solidify his control. The central question remains whether American citizens will embrace this new economic landscape as they head to the polls.
Indeed, the “Trump Economy” has officially arrived, as declared by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on social media, cementing the former president’s influence. However, this takeover has been met with considerable public skepticism, especially concerning the impact of tariffs and new tax plans. With next year’s midterm elections looming, these economic policies will be a central theme on the ballot, potentially offering Democrats a significant opportunity to challenge the current administration’s narrative and reclaim congressional majorities.
Recent economic indicators paint a complex picture. The July employment figures revealed job creation at its weakest pace since the pandemic’s onset, signaling a potential slowdown. While GDP experienced a rebound in the second quarter after shrinking in the first, largely due to trade shifts, the overall economic growth in the first half of 2025 has been roughly half that of the previous year. Consumers, wary of trade war uncertainties, appear to be reining in spending, though unemployment remains remarkably low, and a widespread tariff-led surge in prices has yet to materialize as many experts predicted.
Despite the prevailing concerns, some strategists acknowledge the economy’s resilience. Republican strategist Marc Short noted that “The economy has held up remarkably well. Inflation has stayed relatively tame.” However, he also warned of “storm clouds on the horizon,” suggesting that businesses, which have largely absorbed tariff costs thus far, might soon pass them on to consumers, akin to a slow-boiling frog scenario. This underlying tension between current stability and potential future challenges defines the current economic debate.
The administration’s aggressive trade stance continues with another round of tariff hikes announced recently, following months of unpredictable threats and reversals. These import taxes are generating billions in government revenue, yet their long-term economic impact remains unclear. Critics argue that American consumers and businesses will ultimately bear the financial burden, highlighting a significant point of contention in the broader economic discourse surrounding trade policy.
Public opinion polls reflect widespread disapproval of Trump’s economic handling. A recent Fox News poll indicated that 62% of voters disapprove of his handling of tariffs, 58% are against the new tax and spending bill, and 55% are generally unhappy with his overall economic performance. This public sentiment has also influenced the Federal Reserve, with Chair Jerome Powell citing the risk of tariffs rekindling inflation as a reason for maintaining steady interest rates, a stance that has openly frustrated the former president.
The White House, however, maintains a positive outlook, asserting that the economy is booming and that “All the naysayers and the doomsayers have been proven wrong.” Republican strategist Alex Conant suggests the administration has a compelling story, noting that both inflation and unemployment remain low, which are typically key factors that can undermine a presidency. The extension of tax cuts from Trump’s first term also presents a strong argument for the GOP, appealing directly to voters’ potential tax bills.
Looking ahead to the midterms, the political landscape is intricate. While historically favoring the party out of power, Democrats, despite being soundly defeated in 2024, are struggling to coalesce around an effective appeal to voters. Nevertheless, figures like former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel advocate for a clear economic message, focusing on tariffs as an effective tax hike. Meanwhile, Trump’s unprecedented fundraising of $236 million in the first half of 2025 provides significant financial leverage for GOP House and Senate candidates.
