Leerink Partners, a prominent research firm, has issued a stark negative outlook for UnitedHealth Group’s (NYSE:UNH) Q3 2025 earnings, significantly lowering their earnings per share (EPS) estimates. This revised forecast, detailed in a note to investors, signals a notable shift in expectations for the healthcare giant’s financial performance.

Analyst W. Mayo from Leerink Partnrs now projects UnitedHealth Group to report Q3 2025 earnings of $2.49 per share, a substantial reduction from their previous forecast of $3.60. This downgrade sets a more cautious tone, diverging from the consensus estimate for the company’s current full-year earnings, which stands at $29.54 per share.

The revised estimates extend beyond Q3 2025, with Leerink Partnrs also providing updated projections for UnitedHealth Group’s Q4 2025 at $2.43 EPS, and further into FY2026, FY2027, FY2028, and FY2029. These comprehensive adjustments underscore a long-term re-evaluation of the company’s earning potential by the firm.

UnitedHealth Group’s last reported quarterly earnings on July 29th revealed an EPS of $4.08, which notably missed the consensus estimate of $4.45 by $0.37. Despite this earnings miss, the company posted robust revenue of $111.62 billion, albeit slightly below analysts’ expectations of $111.75 billion, representing a 12.9% increase year-over-year.

Financial health indicators for UnitedHealth Group show a mixed picture. The company boasts a strong return on equity of 23.32% and a net margin of 5.04%. However, recent stock performance has seen the price open at $237.40, significantly down from its one-year high of $630.73, while maintaining a market capitalization of $215.36 billion.

Institutional investor activity reflects ongoing interest and adjustments in holdings. Hedge funds like Brighton Jones LLC and Revolve Wealth Partners LLC have recently increased their stakes in UnitedHealth Group, signaling continued confidence among some major players. Conversely, other firms have also adjusted their positions, indicating a dynamic investment landscape surrounding the healthcare conglomerate.

Insider trading disclosures also reveal recent activity, with both Director Timothy Patrick Flynn and CFO John F. Rex making significant share purchases. These insider acquisitions, totaling over $5 million, suggest internal confidence in the company’s long-term prospects, even amidst revised external earnings forecasts.

Furthermore, UnitedHealth Group recently declared a quarterly dividend of $2.21, paid on June 24th, resulting in an annualized dividend of $8.84 and a yield of 3.7%. This increase from the previous $2.10 dividend reinforces the company’s commitment to shareholder returns, despite the challenges highlighted by the Leerink Partners’ outlook.