Recent escalations in the Middle East, particularly the conflict in Gaza, have thrust China’s deepening regional engagement into the global spotlight, prompting widespread speculation. Historically, Beijing’s overarching strategy in this critical region has been anchored in securing long-term economic and energy interests. This includes ensuring uninterrupted access to vital energy resources, safeguarding crucial international trade corridors, and making substantial investments in infrastructure, technology, and energy sectors, especially within the strategically important Persian Gulf. This foundational approach underscores China’s pragmatic and calculated presence.
Despite these clear strategic imperatives, China has consistently maintained a deliberately ambivalent and multidimensional posture towards key regional players, most notably Iran and Israel. This carefully calibrated diplomatic balancing act mirrors broader geopolitical shifts, the gradual erosion of perceived US hegemony, and, critically, the escalating instability across the Middle East. These interconnected developments increasingly pose direct threats to both regional equilibrium and China’s own vital economic security interests, necessitating a dynamic geopolitical strategy.
Energy security remains a paramount pillar of China’s strategic outlook. As the world’s largest oil importer, China currently sources approximately 40% of its oil from the Middle East, a figure projected to double by 2035. This significant reliance exposes Beijing to acute vulnerabilities should conflict or widespread instability disrupt critical maritime chokepoints like the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz. These same strategic routes also facilitate roughly 60% of China’s trade with Europe and Africa, further amplifying the immense stakes of any regional volatility for China’s global trade and energy supply chains.
China’s sophisticated maneuvering involves balancing relations with rival actors and competing regional interests. A prime example is its concurrent cooperation with Saudi Arabia, where the Crown Prince’s ambitious “Vision 2030” aligns seamlessly with China’s expansive Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This engagement occurs despite China’s deepening ties with Iran, even as Beijing leads diplomatic efforts and negotiations with both the United States and various Arab leaders, actively promoting a ceasefire and working to prevent further regional security escalation, a testament to its complex diplomatic shifts.
However, the direct confrontation between Iran and Israel, which erupted earlier this year, coupled with reported US military strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, has triggered a noticeable shift in China’s perception of both nations. This development is challenging Beijing’s previously neutral stance, testing its intricate relationships with regional states, and straining its ability to navigate among them. Furthermore, this situation intensifies China’s dependence on established oil powers, underscoring an urgent need to diversify energy sources and explore alternative trade and supply routes, including expanded diplomatic engagements with Central Asian states, forming a new regional strategy.
Interestingly, while committed to investing approximately $400 billion in the development of critical infrastructure across Iran, including establishing logistical corridors and strengthening security and economic cooperation as part of the BRI project, Beijing is simultaneously cultivating robust economic and strategic partnerships with Israel, primarily in the burgeoning fields of high-tech, innovation, and science. This dual approach highlights the complexity of China’s foreign policy and its pursuit of diverse interests across the region.
From Beijing’s vantage point, the recent conflict has seemingly demonstrated that Iran, perceived as significantly weakened, is no longer keeping pace with global developments, and that the so-called “Axis of Resistance,” a network of proxies cultivated across the Middle East, is gradually fracturing. Senior Chinese scholars have even suggested that the Ayatollah regime, now seen as teetering on the brink of collapse, no longer effectively serves the long-term strategic interests of China’s leadership in the region, prompting a re-evaluation of its alliances and a focus on long-term regional stability.
Recently, voices within Israel are increasingly advocating for a reassessment of relations with China, despite constraints imposed by the United States. This presents a unique opportunity for Israel to adopt a new, pragmatic foreign policy approach that advances its interests in China, across Asia, and more broadly among countries of the “Global South.” Simultaneously, closer ties could help integrate China into initiatives aimed at promoting stability in the Middle East, including the future rehabilitation of the Gaza Strip, reflecting a shared interest in fostering a more peaceful and prosperous future for the region.
From a broader geopolitical perspective, even a partial shift in China’s stance toward Israel constitutes an important diplomatic signal, potentially leading to a significant strategic turning point. Beyond the inherent advantages of strengthening bilateral ties and expanding Beijing’s role as a mediator between regional adversaries, deeper Chinese involvement could help restrain Iran or, at the very least, counterbalance its negative influence, thereby reducing the risk of regional security escalation. This calculated geopolitical strategy aims to enhance China’s influence as a responsible, moderate, and balanced global power, capable of mediating in other regional conflicts without aiming to replace existing powers.
