Uncertainty continues to cloud the future of Scotch whisky, as ongoing discussions around US tariffs leave the industry grappling with potential economic repercussions, despite recent assurances from the Scottish Secretary of State.

Ian Murray expressed his disappointment with the current US deal arrangement for the sector, emphasizing that while tariffs remain at 10%, there is currently “no sign” of them escalating to 25%, a figure that has caused significant concern within the industry.

The Scotch whisky sector has voiced considerable alarm over the existing trade dynamics, estimating that the current deal is costing businesses approximately £4 million each week, leading to fears of substantial harm if the situation does not improve or if tariffs increase.

In an effort to mitigate these challenges, Mr. Murray is actively leading a delegation to Germany, seeking to strengthen “economic ties” with the European Union and explore new opportunities for the Scottish industry amidst the turbulent global trade landscape.

However, a contrasting perspective emerged from Scotland’s public finance minister, Ivan McKee, who warned that the 25% tariffs could indeed be reimposed next year, as a temporary duty relief previously agreed upon with the United States is set to expire.

The historical impact of such tariffs is stark, with the industry having lost an estimated £600 million in Scotch whisky exports between October 2019 and March 2021 due to duties imposed as a result of a broader trade dispute, highlighting the vulnerability of the sector.

Mr. McKee underscored the critical need for a permanent resolution, noting the “unpredictability” associated with Donald Trump and trade tariffs, which leaves the industry in a perpetual state of flux regarding future trade relations.

Despite these warnings, Mr. Murray maintains that the current 10% tariff is the lowest globally and highlights the UK Prime Minister’s efforts to “reset international relationships” to achieve the present deal, asserting its importance for national and Scottish interests.

During his recent visit to Scotland, Donald Trump reportedly promised to “take a look” at the tariffs, yet no concrete changes have materialized since. Mr. Murray also revealed he declined a public press conference invitation from the former US President during his visit.